Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
